Schumi behind the wheel is an unknown combination... especially with Schumi at age 41. Massa is not a known talent at this time due to the accident. And, Button is known to be good with a fast car but we don't know how the McLaren will shape up and how Button will fit in with the team. This leaves the real challengers, in my guess at the WDC order, to the championship being the following (IF the cars they drive fast and reliable cars with solid teams behind them): Hamilton (truly one of the best talents to ever sit in an F1 car), Alonso (IF he can get his ego act together), Vettel (great driver with incredible potential and a good team), followed by whomever from the "questionables" above. While the actual tech rules for the cars have changed a bit, it is a possible safe bet that those who excelled at the end of 2009 will be the ones to watch for 2010. Each team may or may not have a completely new car from the ground up, but with the new fuel load rule, all bets (even my guess for the WDC order) are off due to any modified aero or wheel/suspension loading due to the new fuel load rules. Certainly, strategies will be drastically different than ever before. It will be an interesting season to watch, with Todt and the FIA being an additional unknown factor... favoritism continuing to rear its ugly head (ala' Max), hands off, or consistent rulings? No one really knows. Testing may give some clues, but will they be only showing teams experimenting or we see accurate representations of the real thing?
Although the tyre issue may be important this year, we still don't know how much. This is no 2005, when drivers couldn't change tyres in a GP and Schumacher had a lot of really bad races by still doing the kind of thing he has always done on previous years (fast tyre-thrashing laps before a nicely timed pit stop to be back on track in front of the competitors). It's all about the kind of tyres that Bridgestone will deliver. If they're hard enough so that drivers won't do much damage to them even when they carry a ton of fuel, than it won't make any difference. And we know that, since Bridgestone became the sole tyre provider, tyres are much harder than in previous years, so the odds are still favouring those which are not very kind on their tyres. I just hope it happens otherwise, it would be fun to see some competition at McLaren and Mercedes... Also, that would mean that the guys which are hard on tyres may have a worse first stint than the others, and perhaps their performance would be reversed at the later stages. Which could mean more overtaking moves, at last.
a) Alonso Ego - Every Driver on the grid has that ego, The affable ones and team players never get due credit from either the fans or their team and shown the curb, as soon as a new Hot Rod is projected by media. I had my reservations against the Spaniard, but the spontaenity he showed in Breaking Park Ferme Rules in Monza'08 to congratulate Vettel on becoming youngest race winner and Similar gesture in Brazil'08 to Congratulate Lewis clearly brings out "Alonso the Person". 2007 was a blip because he was really naive to assume the team of his childhood dream would manage his career interest well as a double world champion something that Ferrari did with Schumacher in 90s.
ReplyDeleteMcLaren Management (read Dennis) acted no better than a Franz Tost when he let his personal likes (for his protege) take precedence over Team interest.
b) Lewis incredible talent - Yes no doubt about it. His First lap in F1, I had placed author an international call to tell, there is something special on the track. But his upbringing is bad. That loud mouth has brought him and his team in trouble ( Oz'09 He should have been Man enough to own the Lie Gate, rather than making his Mentor and Manager the Fall Guy). His Recent "I blew Alonso away" podcast (available on Johny walker site) is another example of narrow minded loud mouth brat.
c) Schumacher on return is an unknown entity, He has driven on the 2010 specs in his formative years , his experience and Top of the shelf work ethics will no doubt see him among leaders this year.
d) Vettel - Of main contenders Vettel has the best chance of winning WDC reason is Redbull has Adrian Newey with them. Remember they were the only team who didn't resort to trick of double diffuser and were still consistent around the year. Adrian seems to have sorted out the gremlins that his cars have due to compact designs he resorts to and he seems to be enjoying in more casual atmosphere of Redbull and Young Boss like Christian Horner. Unlike his McLaren Tenure where once every six months he used to give "retirement" interview.
If Mark Webber Beats Vettel in RedBull, I will tip my hat off to the Oz Driver.
ReplyDeleteSimilarly at McLaren If Indeed Jenson Button demonstrates that "Smooth Driving" Style is not just a myth marketed by his PR and circulated by his Friends in media (read Martin Brundle), Indeed he demonstrates that and stands tall in front of Hamilton, Hamilton will show his "Loud Mouth True Colors".
Historically Jenson has not done well, when car doesn't suit his style. he loses interest and that worked well in Honda/BAR where the team revolved around him. His biggest challenge this season will be to prove that he can drive around problems of the car (something which Lewis Does well).
About Ferrari -
Alonso no doubt is the only driver that brings more than just sheer speed to table. He doesn't throw any races in frustration, he fights hard even for the scrapes and than puts him in class of Schumacher and He is not unsportsman like the German, He has never even made dirty moves on Lewis on Track when they were fighting for a position in 2008-09. He has lot to prove that 2005-06 was not just about Renault's Mass Damper and Superior Performance with Michelin. He has shown his maturity in 2008-09 which no doubt will see him take the leader's role in Ferrari.
Massa from 2006 has shown that he has it him and he can keep every team-mate honest, may it be Schumi or Kimi and same will continue in 2010. He has upper hand over Alonso in early races, before Alonso settles in with "Ferrari specific hardware components especially the Brakes". So its for Massa to make most of the "Opening Advantage". The Latest update is Massa will continue with Rob Smedley and Alonso will get Kimi's team. So thats another Advantage for the Brazilian.
Also We have to take into account that Ferrari chose to shut down 2009 season and concentrate on 2010. Unlike McLaren that were fighting with Redbull till end of season.
and Redbull was not doing major upgrades, just enough to keep their drivers in chase.
My Bets are
1-2 Ferrari-Redbull
3-4 McLaren-Mercedes.
and Drivers in Same Order.
I think McLaren and Redbull will be a it from the opening race itself.
ReplyDeleteRedbull has Newey and McLaren have sound infra. They also have superb processes, and if their car ends the first race in the top three on its own merit, then 2010 season will see McLaren dominate.